Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) PT Lowered to $92 at Susquehanna

Susquehanna analyst Joseph Stauff lowered the price target on Madison Square Garden Entertainment (NYSE: MSGE) to $92.00 (from $103.00) while maintaining a Positive rating.

The analyst comments "We maintain our fiscal 1Q27 (ended 9/30/26) rev/EBITDA of $203m/$23m, which are (3%)/(2%) below consensus estimates. We see upside to our estimates given a robust concert quarter at MSG, with 64 Garden events (vs. 48 last year) led by the 30-show Harry Styles MSG residency, driving our ticketing & venue license fee revenue estimate of $122m (+42% y/y). For fiscal 2Q27 (ends 12/31/26), the significance of its seasonal and vertically integrated show 'Christmas Spectacular' at Radio City (MSGE owns the production & venue) makes it the most important quarter of the year (accounts for ~2/3 of FY27E EBITDA) (see Exhibit 1 below). In FY2Q27, we can see that MSGE has increased the # of Christmas Spectacular shows +7% yoy and with some pricing (we estimate +2% yoy), we estimate Christmas revenue to grow +9% to $198m before factoring in the remaining $266m from Knicks/Rangers/Events (where the # of events is +8% increase yoy). Also, we think there is likely to be a deal announcement for MSGE to sell Infosys Theater to the federal government by year-end."

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