Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) PT Raised to $47 at Evercore ISI

Evercore ISI analyst David Palmer raised the price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) to $47.00 while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "2Q26 results reinforced our view that underlying traffic trends are improving... Although 3Q could step back slightly sequentially due to the recent (unrelated) cyclospora headlines (EVRe 3Q SSS growth of 1%; cons. 1.5%), our confidence is building that 4% SSS growth by 4Q (cons. 2.5%) is achievable and that momentum can continue in 2027.

...due to a variety of initiatives with building benefits to SSS heading into 2027. We detail recent changes and upcoming drivers on page 2. It has been heartening to hear that changes — together with two years of restrained pricing — have bolstered trends among Chipotle’s younger and low-income consumers. This puts the chain in a better position to take pricing in line with inflation (we estimate near 3% in 2027), putting only a 1% burden on traffic growth to hit 4% SSS growth next year. Under this top-line scenario, we view our base case for 40bp of restaurant margin expansion as highly achievable (EVRe 24.5% restaurant margin; cons. 24.3%), which translates to a 28% incremental restaurant margin.

Reiterating Outperform rating and raising price target to $47. We are raising our 2H26e EPS from $0.56 to $0.58 (+8% YoY; cons. $0.57) and our 2027e EPS from $1.33 to $1.38 (+20% YoY; cons. $1.35). With slightly higher EPS estimates and increasing confidence in 2027 SSS drivers (see pages 2–3), we are raising our price target from $45 to $47. This one-year target translates to 32x forward EPS (12 months ending June 2028) and a ~2x PEG ratio (assuming Chipotle gets back to a mid- to high-teens EPS growth)."

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