Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) PT Raised to $100 at Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai raised the price target on Xenon Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: XENE) to $100.00 (from $65.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented, "We think azetukalner (novel Kv7) has the attributes of a top-selling epilepsy pill, driven by best-in-class focal epilepsy data (see initial Phase III takes here). In 2026, XENE stock could grind higher as Big Pharma interest rises and as the Street gauges AZK's peak sales pot'l (we think $2B+). In any case, XENE will share add'l analyses at AAN (Apr 18-22), ahead of an NDA filing in Q3:26 (90-95%+ PoS). In H1:27, AZK's Phase III MDD data is a $1B+ call option. Big Picture: Wholly-owned AZK is a highly differentiated Kv7 pill with no real disadvantages. The Street is likely to assign a higher peak sales pot'l on unprecedented Phase III data, so we expect the stock to re-rate (e.g. valuation support rises). In our view, AZK will likely be broadly adopted by both epileptologists and general neurologists (we think ultimately in the 3L+ setting), thanks to its rapid/strong efficacy and favorable safety/tolerability, plus (+) ease-of-use attributes like a novel MOA, evening QD dosing, no titration, dosing flexibility, minimal DDI risks, and pot'l mood benefits (among others). Raising PT to $100 (from $65) on a "home run" Phase III scenario. (1) Our revised $2B peak sales in epilepsy (up from $1-1.5B) seems reasonable as AZK is competitive to $1-2B blockbusters like Keppra, Vimpat and Lamictal (all genericized now but used in the early-line settings). In addition, Xcopri's peak sales are on pace to reach $1B+ despite titration/DDI issues (and we think AZK's profile is superior). We think AZK can command a pricing premium as well. (2) Our PoS rises to 90-95%+ (from 80-85%+) on two (+) pivotal Phase II/IIIs, supporting (3) an NDA submission in Q3:26 (from H2:26), approval in Q3:27 and launch by YE:27/early 2028. (4) Our base case for the NDA is a 12-month standard review, followed by a ~3-month DEA scheduling (benign). Net-net: Our revised $2B sales assumes a <5% penetration on a strong $25K+ WAC price (e.g. mgmt thinks $15K Xcopri is underpriced), both of which are still conservative."

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