Certara Inc. (CERT) PT Lowered to $10 at Leerink Partners

Leerink Partners analyst Michael Cherny lowered the price target on Certara Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) to $10.00 (from $13.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "We understand why the stock has been weak/ volatile—4Q software bookings declined and guidance on revenue/EBITDA came in below expectations. There certainly was an element of both market and execution dynamics that the company honed in on, yet this is also what you tend to get when you have a new CEO come in. CERT's push was to drive improved commercialization efforts, something that its broad biosimulation offerings (which have plenty of AI enablement) should be set up to do. The transition dynamic of FY26 is certainly a financial step back, but we do not see it as thesischanging relative to what this business can be. With today's pullback on top of what has been market-wide pressure on ANYTHING that sells software, we think the ability for CERT to build back to an appealing investment case (supported by still strong margins and FCF) remains in place. We are reducing our price target from $13 to $10, with our target multiple down from 15x CY27 EV/EBITDA to 12x to reflect lower growth/ market questions/group re-ratings. However, we think there is certainly opportunity to regain its previous multiple if the planned investments turn into a profitable growth reboot. We thus reiterate our Outperform rating."

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