Bernstein on Expedia (EXPE): 'We are happy to remain neutral'

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Richard Clarke reiterated a Market Perform rating and $256.00 price target on Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE).

The analyst commented: "In a pre AI world this would have been a strong print; Expedia delivered on both growth and margins in Q4, the 6% acceleration in B2B revenue growth (24% y/y) shows momentum is more durable than expected, and the B2C turnaround looks to be gaining traction with all 3 brands growing for consecutive quarters. Revenue guidance looks a little soft ex FX (midpoint of 5.5% growth), but the margin guide compensates, and we take up our FY26 EBITDA by 7%. However, travel is changing, and with shifts in the top of the funnel short term earnings momentum takes a backseat - until Expedia can give compelling evidence that it can succeed in an environment where the top of the funnel has shifted to AI platforms, the shares will remain under pressure. In this context a soft top line growth guide (given a strong US 2026 event calendar) is sufficient to cause concerns about share in an AI world, and while CAPEX is expected to remain flat y/y, there was increasing discussion of AI investment. While the stock is 27% off recent highs, on 12.6X 2026 EBIT current valuations still require sustained long term growth - for a stock trading as an 'AI loser' the continued uncertainty over terminal value means we are happy to remain neutral."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Expedia click here. For more ratings news on Expedia click here.

Shares of Expedia closed at $212.67 yesterday.

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