Shopify (SHOP) PT Lowered to $126 at Cantor Fitzgerald

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan lowered the price target on Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) to $126.00 (from $181.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented, "SHOP reported 4Q results with GMV and PF EBIT above prior Street (Visible Alpha) estimates by 2% and 7%, respectively. 4Q GMV grew 31% y/y, driven by strong holiday shopping trends on Shopify stores. MRR accelerated by 5- pts to +15% despite ongoing headwinds to y/y growth from free-to-paid trial changes. On the guidance - SHOP’s 1Q outlook calls for another strong quarter, with revenue growth above 30% and GP growth in high-20s (vs. +25% in 4Q25). Meanwhile, the company’s 1Q FCF (guidance low-mid teens % of revenue) is weighed by intra-quarter tax dynamics, which are expected to normalize over the next few quarters. On the call, SHOP highlighted the company’s strong competitive position, as core infrastructure is enabling agentic commerce on various AI platforms. The company is also seeing strong adoption of its AI tools, including Sidekick by merchants in the early days. Overall, 4Q was a strong quarter for SHOP. We remain bullish on SHOP’s fundamental outlook for 2026, but remain Neutral-rated given its premium valuation despite recent pullback. We have revised our FY27E revenues and PF EBIT higher by 2% and 6%, respectively, and our revised 12-month PT is $126 (vs. $181 previously)."

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