Progressive Corp. (PGR) PT Lowered to $216 at Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Andrew Andersen lowered the price target on Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) to $216.00 (from $230.00) while maintaining a Hold rating.

The analyst commenters "We update our model following Dec. results and lower EPS estimates by 2%/3%/2% for '26-28E, largely on slightly higher Personal Auto LR and ER estimates. We expect continued competitive pressure to impact underlying loss ratios in Auto off strong levels, and we tweak expense ratios higher in the out-years. We continue to model decelerating PIF growth in Personal Auto in '26/27E. Remains Hold; PT $216 (10% ETR). We lower our EPS by $(0.40)/$(0.45)/$(0.35) to $16.20/$16.25/$16.45 for '26-28E. Despite our lower estimates, we remain 1%/1%/2% above street. We expect continued competitive pressure in the Personal Auto market to result in upward pressure on loss ratios in the near-term. As a result, we increase our Personal Auto underlying loss ratios by 60bps/20bps to 69.0%/70.5% for '26/27E, which represents 2.5pts/1.5pts deterioration YoY. We continue to model an 18.7% expense ratio in '26E, but increase our out-year estimates slightly by 20bps/30bps to 17.9%/17.5% for '27/28E."

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