Morgan Stanley on Progressive Corp. (PGR): 'continued progress in growth and margin would help us to become incrementally positive'

Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang reiterated an Underweight rating and $214.00 price target on Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR).

The analyst comments "Unexpectedly strong PIF growth indicates more gas in the tank. Despite fears of competition and effects of seasonality, the company saw another month of strong auto PIF growth. With both October and December seeing 200k+ PIF adds each, it would indicate that Progressive has more room to grow despite an incrementally challenging environment. While we still believe that YoY PIF growth in 1Q26 will settle out near 10% level, the company is carrying solid momentum into the new year. The key focus to watch will be policy/customer retention, and whether the company can break the recent trend of 'on again, off again' growth pattern. December's overall core combined ratio is also impressive at 89.4% and the solid underwriting indicates that inflationary pressures are not yet showing up in the results. Zooming out slightly, 2025 shaped out to be a relatively solid year despite the underwriting cycle turning. Despite a softer November, growth held up better than expected in 4Q25, and the momentum is likely on Progressive's side heading into 1Q26. Progressive has been the best in class underwriter for years, and the combination of growth and margin serves as a reminder. We remain Underweight for now, but continued progress in growth and margin would help us to become incrementally positive."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Progressive Corp. click here. For more ratings news on Progressive Corp. click here.

Shares of Progressive Corp. closed at $208.08 yesterday.

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