Home Depot (HD) PT Lowered to $395 at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman lowered the price target on Home Depot (NYSE: HD) to $395.00 (from $430.00) while maintaining a Overweight rating.

The analyst comments "Our thoughts on the complex project strategy. There is a bear argument that investments in complex project (SRS/GMS) have made HD a more variable business, particularly at a time when demand is weakening at the margin. While we recognize the added variability, we think the strategy is sound, and our recent conversations with large scale home builders and remodelers indicate HD is gaining mindshare in the wholesale distribution industry. Elasticity could be impacting top-line. Comp transactions declined 1.6% in Q3'25 whereas ticket grew +1.8% y/y. While we attribute the decline in traffic primarily to the difficult hurricane lap, we think elasticity could be playing a role as well, since the deceleration in transactions is concurrent with tariff-induced pricing working its way through the system. Given Q4'25 will face a similarly challenging y/y hurricane compare, we expect transactions to decline LSD% in Q4'25."

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