Nuvalent (NUVL) PT Raised to $155 at Guggenheim

Guggenheim analyst Brad raised the price target on Nuvalent (NASDAQ: NUVL) to $155.00 (from $125.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "The positive neladalkib (ALK TKI) pivotal data lead us to fully de-risk our 2/3L ALK+ NSCLC PoS and increase our 1L PoS to 75%. Our 2040E neladalkib estimate is now $4.0bn ($5.2bn unadjusted), and our PT increases to $155. That estimate is higher than the 2025E sales of all ALK TKIs (~$3bn) because we think the neladalkib profile demonstrates properties that should expand the market opportunity- wider breadth of patient activity to expand penetration, longer efficacy durability to extend treatment durations, and clean safety to keep patients on drug longer. The peak opportunity requires success of the 1L phase 3 ALKAZAR trial that is still several years away, but the first neladalkib TKI pre-treated launch next year increasingly looks material enough for an investment thesis at today's valuation because of the strong patient demand shown via the phase 2 ALKOVE-1 enrollment curve and expanded access program (EAP). In terms of the data, we see neladalkib working as intended based on NUVL's rational design. The salvage 3L+ activity post-lorlatinib shows neladalkib was designed for any ALK+ NSCLC patient. The better 2L ORR and DOR cross-trial versus lorlatinib show neladalkib has superior coverage of all ALK single and compound mutations and significantly better safety to keep dose intensity high and prolong durability. The robust neladalkib CNS activity shows this enhanced profile was captured without sacrificing the key feature of brain penetration. We also think neladalkib's interim 1L ORR of 86% and the DOR curves across patient cohorts de-risk the 1L ALKAZAR trial, where neladalkib must beat alectinib on PFS. Neladalkib's 2L DOR curve matching the alectinib 1L DOR curve is powerful evidence that a superiority outcome should occur. Based on this profile, we can't help but think neladalkib is likely to be the last ALK TKI ever developed. It's hard to see how patient outcomes improve except for novel combination development to address off-ALK resistance."

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