Guardian Pharmacy Services Inc. (GRDN) PT Raised to $35 at Raymond James

Raymond James analyst John Ransom raised the price target on Guardian Pharmacy Services Inc. (NYSE: GRDN) to $35.00 (from $28.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "We are maintaining our Outperform rating while raising our price target to $35 on GRDN following 3Q25 results that were better than expected as the company reported revenue of $377.4M (Street: $354.1M, RJ: $354.2M), adj. EBITDA of $27.3M (Street: $25.6M, RJ: $25.9M), and resident count of ~204k (RJ: 197k). Management also increased FY25 guidance by ~4% and now expects adj. EBITDA of $104-106M (prior: $100-102M). Management also made a key comment on 2026 and the IRA impact, indicating that 2026 revenue will be roughly flat vs. our prior estimate of +2%, but the team is increasingly confident that they will offset the earnings impact through recontracting with their PBM payors. We estimate that this implies that the revenue headwind associated with the IRA has grown to ~$140M vs. the ~$110M we estimated at the IPO due to both growth and drug mix. Our 2026 EBITDA estimate remains unchanged at $112M as we account for the higher 2025 EBITDA base of earnings (+$4M), but an IRA headwind that is now a ~$8M vs. our prior $4M estimate. We continue to think there will be upside to our 2026 estimates, upon the conclusion of these negotiations and look forward to clarity. With the stock now at ~16x 2027 EBITDA, the market is certainly not pricing in much concern."

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