Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL) PT Lowered to $33 at Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Cox lowered the price target on Aspen Insurance Holdings (NYSE: AHL) to $33.00 (from $36.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "Following AHL 2Q25 earnings, we have decreased our EPS estimates by 4%/5%/3% in 2025/2026/2027, as we consider the impacts of weakening specialty/reinsurance conditions on premium growth and the underlying loss ratio, as evidenced during the quarter. Weaker growth and underlying loss ratio estimates are partially offset by a stronger expense ratio and NII, plus the addition of $40mn of annual buybacks into our model for 2026/2027. We have lowered our NPW growth estimates by 60bps/40bps in 2026/2027 to 7.1%/5.2%, driven by a ~1pp decrease to our 2026/2027 Insurance NPW growth estimates, while our reinsurance estimates remain largely unchanged. Our Insurance/Reinsurance underlying loss ratios increase by ~60bps/70bps in 2026/2027 as we consider 1) the business mix shift to long-tail lines and 2) a deteriorating pricing environment in AHL's primary and reinsurance property book (peers report down -10/-20%) and primary specialty book (AIG Global Specialty/Lloyd's of -6%/-3%). Similar to CB and AIG, management struck a more favorable tone on the outlook for financial lines pricing during the quarter, however our estimates had already considered a bottoming of the US D&O market within 2025, so the commentary has minimal impact on our view of growth or profitability. Our estimates for the Insurance/Reinsurance expense ratios have improved by ~50bps/~30bps in 2026/2027, as we consider the impact of AHL's fee income on a lower level of NPE, modestly offset by a 10bps increase to the G&A ratio as we consider lower operating leverage. We have modestly increased net investment income to consider the beat on yield during the quarter, and we have added $40mn of annual buybacks in 2026/2027 to account for the likelihood of lower organic growth opportunities. We maintain our Neutral rating and lower our price target by $3 (8%) to $33 (14% total return)."

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