Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) PT Raised to $39 at Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove raised the price target on Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV) to $39.00 (from $34.00) while maintaining a Sell rating.

The analyst comments: "After investor expectations had risen significantly during the quarter, and following a VPG guidance raise from TNL which further raised the bar, HGV's in-line results and maintained guidance ultimately drove the stock lower today. In our view, the key question is on HGV's ability to hit its 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook, which implies trends accelerate from -2.6% in 1H to +9.6% in 2H, despite tougher contract sales comps in 4Q on the horizon. While the underlying timeshare consumer seems broadly resilient, we don't come away with the sense that the outlook is de-risked, and we continue to model adjusted EBITDA below the guidance range (GSe $1.118bn vs. guidance of $1.125bn - $1.165bn). On net, our EBITDA estimates are broadly unchanged, though we do tweak up our multiple to reflect general market expansion. We maintain our Sell rating pending further proof points around HGV's ability to achieve its 2025 outlook, and raise our price target from $34 to $39."

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