Equifax (EFX) PT Lowered to $278 at UBS

UBS analyst Kevin McVeigh lowered the price target on Equifax (NYSE: EFX) to $278.00 (from $315.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented, "Amid continued earnings-related volatility the EFX stock is off ~7% intraday—in excess of its implied 4.5% move—as disappointing Q3 guidance and FX-induced 2025 midpoint raise offset Q2 beat. Equifax Workforce Solutions [EWS (~45% revenue)] revenue growth accelerated +500bps to 8% YoY driven by government and consumer lending growth. That said, full year EWS guidance was trimmed 200bps to ~5% YoY due to weaker I-9 and onboarding revenue following slower hiring in July amid white collar corporate caution. EWS also delivered solid 14% government growth in Q2 supported by its $50m SSA agreement and new OBBBA opportunities as Biden-era policy overhang weighed on the near-term outlook. This was offset by +200bps increase in USIS [~35% revenue] 2025 growth to ~7%, partially driven by mortgage revenue outperformance [+20% YoY] despite no change in mortgage market outlook. Equifax also enjoyed share gains in pre-qual and pre-approval products even as there is an unclear timeline from FHFA implementation of Vantage Score. In our view, while the long-term growth framework remains intact—not including mortgage [~20% revenue]—amid strong free cash flow + $190m [$127m buyback + $62m divvy] capital return in Q2, we adjust our target to $278 from $315 amid an uncertain macro and elevated earnings volatility."

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