Abivax (ABVX) PT Raised to $74 at Leerink Partners

Leerink Partners analyst Thomas Smith raised the price target on Abivax (NASDAQ: ABVX) to $74.00 (from $20.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "ABVX (OP) held an investor call to discuss the positive topline induction data from their Phase 3 ABTECT program for lead asset obefazimod (obe, oral miR-124 inducer) in ulcerative colitis (UC). See our initial takeaways note HERE. Further details from the investor call reinforced our conviction that these results represent a best-case scenario for ABVX and obefazimod – which we believe now has the most compelling late-stage clinical profile for a novel oral agent in UC with potential to address a clear unmet need in the massive ~$30bn market for IBD therapeutics. Additional color provided during the company’s webcast focused on (1) more granular details on efficacy, where obe exceeded investor and company expectations on the FDA primary endpoint of clinical remission (50mg ~16.4% pbo-adjusted pooled, 13.4% to 19.8% with p < 0.0001 in both studies), achieving stat-sig benefits for the 50mg dose across all primary and key secondary endpoints in both studies, (2) more details on obe’s well-tolerated safety profile, with manageable rates of headache (~16-26%) that were transient (median duration of 2-3 days) and not a meaningful driver of discontinuations, (3) plans for additional detailed data disclosure, including further subgroup analyses (i.e., advanced therapyexperienced vs. naïve patients and regional treatment effect) expected at a future medical congress (we think UEGW in October is a reasonable possibility), and (4) expectations for upcoming obe data readouts, including the ABTECT 44-week maintenance data in 2Q26, Phase 2b Crohn’s (CD) data in 2H26, and more color on potential combination regimens by YE25. Overall, we believe best-case topline data from ABTECT have catapulted obefazimod to the forefront of the oral IBD landscape. We further believe that the combination of strong 8wk induction results plus the breadth and quality of prior Phase 2 long-term extension data meaningfully derisk the upcoming 44wk maintenance data readout expected in 2Q26. Based on these results, we have increased our revenue estimates for obe in UC and CD, modeling ~$4bn in peak revenue (~$1.9bn with 90% POS in UC / ~$2.1bn with 60% POS in CD) vs. ~$2.6bn prior. With these revisions, we are also increasing our ABVX price target to $74 (vs. $20 prior). With this profile, we see multi-blockbuster potential for obefazimod as a treatment for IBD, and would highlight the recent flurry of M&A / BD activity in this space – including Merck/Prometheus (~$10.1bn), Roche/ Telavant (~$7.25bn), Pfizer/Arena (~$6.7bn), Lilly/Morphic (~ $3.2bn) – as validation of large pharma’s strategic interest and compelling valuation comps for ABVX given the strength of the Phase 3 ABTECT data and advanced stage of development. ABVX is one of our Top Picks for 2025; Reiterate OP."

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