JPMorgan on ORIC Pharamceuticals (ORIC): 'Top Pick', 'ORIC shares should be ~2-4X current levels', PT $20

JPMorgan analyst Anupam Rama reiterated an Overweight rating and $20.00 price target on ORIC Pharamceuticals (NASDAQ: ORIC)

The analyst comments "• Overall, we continue to see the 1H25 ORIC-944 update as one that should underscore the clinical and strategic potential of the asset. • We would note that ASCO is right around the corner (5/30-6/3). While the data will NOT formally be at the conference, we would not be surprised if the data are released via press release / webcast strategy slightly ahead of or in and around ASCO. Indeed, this would enable company discussions with the Street, KOLs, and potential strategic partners at the meeting. • ORIC has previously noted the 1H25 update would be from ~12-15 patients, inclusive of the 6 patients presented at The JPM HCC (3/6 confirmed PSA50 response and 2/6 confirmed PSA90 response with ORIC-944 + apalutamide). At The Conference, ORIC also noted that initial clinical activity in combination with darolutamide was similar to the combo with apalutamide. • Based on our discussion with ORIC, post the RCT phase 1 dose expansion study (Part 2B) of mevrometostat + Xtandi in mCRPC, the company has observed strong enrollment in ORIC-944 + AR inhibitor combo study. Hence, we do believe that patient numbers in the 1H25 ORIC-944 update could be on the higher end of the aforementioned range (or potentially exceed the range). • Our base case win scenario for ORIC-944 1H25 update is unchanged - ORIC-944 combo data being around the mevrometostat + Xtandi RCT combo update on efficacy (PSA50 ~34% / PSA90 ~12%) and better tolerability (in particular on GI AEs / diarrhea), given currently only in dose escalation phase. In this scenario, we see ORIC grinding into the low- to mid-teens / share range. • A home run scenario would show clear trends of differentiation relative to the competition on both efficacy and safety in the dose escalation for ORIC-944. In this scenario, we are looking for PSA50 in the 4-handle range and PSA90 in the 2-handle range, as well as better safety across a range of AEs (GI AEs / diarrhea, dysgeusia, alopecia, etc). In this scenario, we see ORIC shares grinding into the mid- to high-teens / share range. Of note, ORIC did not push back on our views related to clinical metrics around a home run scenario. • We see a very low probability for a downside scenario, being driven by mixed efficacy and / or mixed safety. In this scenario, we see ORIC shares trading to low-single digit / share range. • In our view, ORIC shares should be ~2-4X current levels to appropriately reflect the probability adjusted potential of ORIC-944 alone. Reiterate Overweight rating on ORIC shares and Analyst Focus List status based on long-term ORIC-944 potential."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on ORIC Pharamceuticals click here. For more ratings news on ORIC Pharamceuticals click here.

Shares of ORIC Pharamceuticals closed at $5.14 yesterday.

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