Eli Lilly (LLY) PT Lowered to $900 at BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Evan David Seigerman lowered the price target on Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to $900.00 (from $1,010.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The analyst commented: "Zepbound script data continues to show Lilly pulling ahead of Novo, starting to command a lead in the incretin market. Heading into 1Q25, we are starting to see Lilly meaningfully benefit from its investment in both incretin manufacturing, commercialization, and its pipeline. Mounjaro and Zepbound scripts are both up +56% and +310% YoY.

We are reducing our target price to $900/share. This reduction in target price does not reflect a lack of confidence in Lilly's incretin portfolio, rather it merely considers recent macroeconomic conditions which have pressured the sector. We are now reducing our forward P/E 2026 multiple to 31x, in line with current FactSet estimates. We have also slightly reduced our Mounjaro estimates to $3.91B vs. $3.9B consensus. While Mounjaro is gaining share on Ozempic, TRx growth QoQ was less meaningful than we previously expected. We have also increased our revenue estimates for Zepbound +4% to $2.2B (cons. $2.2B) on improving script dynamics and the removal of compounders. We now estimate total revenue reaches $12.77B (cons. $12.77B) and diluted non-GAAP EPS of $3.09 (cons. $4.66) which does not appear to consider recently released IPR&D expenses."

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