ExxonMobil (XOM) PT Raised to $128 at TD Cowen

TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised the price target on ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) to $128.00 (from $120.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "We are updating our XOM 1Q24 EPS from $2.20/sh to $2.23/sh compared to consensus $2.19/sh. XOM guided EPS to $2.20/sh, with a range of $1.81 - $2.61. Since 1Q21, XOM has historically beat guidance midpoint by $0.10/sh or 6%. See page 3 for a table of segment estimates. You can see our prior estimate update (3/28) here. Upstream: We estimate Upstream at $6.2B vs prior/consensus/guide $6.1B/$5.7/$6.1. Liquids price impacts were $0.1B worse than midpoint of guide while gas was $0.3B better likely on a smaller decline in gas trading benefits q/q than the full $0.6B benefit we estimated for 4Q23. We also reduce production by 20kboed given our estimate of headwinds to L48 due to winter storms that is not included in guidance, reducing earnings $0.1B. We continue to incorporate a benefit from the elimination of a $0.2B tax headwind not included in guidance and a $0.1B reduction in DDA q/q. Downstream: We estimate Downstream at $2.4B vs prior/consensus/guide $2.5B/$3.1/$2.5. Industry margins increased $0.4B q/q more than forecast, though this was offset by $0.3B higher maintenance costs than forecast likely due to those same higher industry margins as XOM was unable to fully capture them. XOM suggested 1Q24 will be its most active maintenance quarter this year. Price/timing headwind was $1.1B; we estimated this would be $0.9B. We also incorporate $0.3B one-time benefits in 4Q that we do not expect to repeat, offset by $0.2B lower seasonal opex. XOM changed its "Unsettled Derivatives" line item to "timing effects", now incorporating unsettled derivatives in addition to timing differences between derivs settlements and their offsetting physical commodity realizations. Settled trades will continue to be captured in reported industry margin line-item with results"

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