Evercore ISI Comments on Amazon.com (AMZN) Prime Day: 'Intrinsically Impressive 25% Unit Growth'

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated an Outperform rating and $150.00 price target on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).

The analyst comments "Our View: We estimate that Amazon generated approx. $11.9B in GMV and $6.2B in Revenue over its two-day Prime Day shopping holiday, accounting for 4-5% of our Q3 AMZN Revenue estimate. We view these results as modestly better than we would have assumed (vs. the past two years of mgmt. disclosures of 400bps contribution to Revenue). Reit Outperform & $150 PT. AMZN remains one of our top Large Cap ‘Net Longs, along with UBER, META, and SPOT (our Q2 large cap preview here). Key Takeaways From Prime Day: The key disclosure in this year’s Prime Day release is that “Prime members purchased more than 375 million items worldwide.” This implies 25% Y/Y growth in items sold vs. last year’s Prime Day, accelerating from the consistent ~20% Y/Y unit growth on Prime Days over the prior three years (’20-’22). That is an intrinsically high growth rate, and especially at AMZN’s scale! What are the bestsellers? 1) Best-selling categories this year included Home, Fashion, and Beauty; 2) Among the hottest deals were LANEIGE Lip Glowy Balm, Apple AirPods, Bissell Little Green Portable Deep Cleaner. #1 Best Seller Worldwide? Fire TV Stick (3rd Gen) with Alexa Voice Remote. Estimating Prime Day’s Impact: Our Prime Day Revenue estimate is based on the company’s prior and current disclosures and is our best effort estimate. Our estimate is likely +/-10% from the actual number, and that may be good enough. The key disclosure in this year’s Prime Day release is that “Prime members purchased more than 375 million items worldwide.” Assuming a $32 ASP (extrapolated from our estimates and company disclosures), this implies approx. $11.9B in gross sales or GMV across the two Prime Days. And, and assuming that third-party (3P) sales were 64% of total sales and a 25% take rate on those sales, this implies $6.2B in net revenue (up 21% Y/Y), or 4.4% contribution to Amazon’s Q3:23 revenue based on our estimates. For context, last year, the company disclosed that Prime Day Revenue accounted for 400 bps of Y/Y growth (implying ~$5.1B in Revenue). "

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Amazon.com click here. For more ratings news on Amazon.com click here.

Shares of Amazon.com closed at $130.80 yesterday.

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