Aemetis (AMTX) PT Raised 600% to $30 at Ascendiant Capital

Ascendiant Capital analyst Edward Woo raised the price target on Aemetis (Nasdaq: AMTX) to $30.00 (from $4.25) while maintaining a Buy rating after the company reported Revenue of $37 million (-28% y-o-y), compared to consensus of $50 million. EPS of $(0.67), missed consensus of $(0.59) and there was no company guidance. Q4 results were much lower than expected as India revenue remains weak (-81% y-o-y vs -63% y-o-y in Q3) due to delays in the India government Oil Marketing Company biodiesel tender process delayed revenue in India. While all of this is negative, Aemetis has provided a 5-year financial plan to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2025. Starting in 2021, the company expects revenue of $239 million, EBITDA of $8 million, and EPS of ~$(1.50).

The analyst stated "While at first glance, Aemetis’s operations and financials appear challenged (due to its history of losses and tight liquidity), we believe the company is near an inflection point to significantly improve its operations and outlook. Specifically we view a favorable outlook in 2021 for: 1) Pricing it receives for its products (ethanol and biodiesel). 2) Market opportunities for ethanol for the health markets. 3) Government mandates for usage of renewable fuels. 4) Debt financing (interest rates, ability to rollover/issue new debt). 5) Monetization of its India plant. 6) Value from its planned new cellulosic ethanol production facility. 7) Biogas project. 8) Improvements in economics/financials for its ethanol plant."

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