Landstar System (LSTR) Misses Q4 EPS by 15c; OffersQ1 EPS Guidance Below Consensus

Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) reported Q4 EPS of $1.27, $0.15 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.42. Revenue for the quarter came in at $994.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $995.05 million.

“As expected, the macroeconomic environment during the 2019 fourth quarter made for challenging comparisons against our record 2018 fourth quarter performance,” said Landstar President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Gattoni. “Soft demand, driven by slowing production in the U.S. manufacturing sector, and more readily available truck capacity drove Landstar’s truck rates and volumes below prior year levels in the 2019 fourth quarter. Overall, 2019 fourth quarter revenue was 16 percent below 2018 fourth quarter revenue, mostly due to a 9 percent decrease in revenue per load on loads hauled via truck and a 7 percent decrease in truck loadings. The Company’s fourth quarter earnings guidance issued on October 23, 2019 anticipated fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.40 to $1.46 reflecting insurance and claims costs at 3.6 percent of estimated fourth quarter BCO revenue. Diluted earnings per share fell below our guidance, entirely due to higher insurance and claims costs than we anticipated in our initial estimate. During the 2019 fourth quarter, we incurred $7.2 million of unfavorable development of prior year claims that drove actual insurance and claims costs to 5.7 percent of BCO revenue in the quarter.”

Gattoni further commented, “Landstar’s financial performance in 2018 was by far the best in the Company’s history, making for very difficult comparisons in 2019. We experienced year-over-year declines in both truck volumes and price for much of 2019, and revenue for fiscal year 2019 was 11% below that of fiscal year 2018. Nevertheless, 2019 was still the second best financial year in the Company’s history after 2018, with 2019 revenue, gross profit, operating income and diluted earnings per share each representing the second highest annual amount achieved in Landstar history.”

Gattoni continued, “January of any given year is typically the slowest month of the year. Through the first several weeks of January, there has been little change in the macroeconomic environment experienced throughout 2019, characterized by soft demand, weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector, and readily available truck capacity. Additionally, the 2019 first quarter was seasonally the strongest quarter of 2019, setting the stage for a difficult quarter-over-prior-year-quarter comparison heading into the first quarter of 2020. I expect these conditions to result in earnings in the 2020 first quarter to be well below that of the 2019 first quarter. From a revenue standpoint, the number of loads hauled via truck in the first few weeks of 2020 was below the corresponding period of the prior year in a mid-single digit percentage range, somewhat similar to the year-over-prior-year percentage decrease experienced in the 2019 fourth quarter. Revenue per load on loads hauled via truck in the first few weeks of January was below the same period of the prior year in a mid-single digit percentage range, a slight improvement to the year-over-prior-year percentage decrease experienced in the 2019 fourth quarter. I expect the volume and pricing trends experienced in the first few weeks of January to continue through the first quarter. As such, I anticipate revenue for the 2020 first quarter to be in a range of $915 million to $965 million.”

Gattoni added that, “In early January, a BCO with a motor carrier subsidiary of the Company was involved in a tragic vehicular accident involving a fatality. The Company is still in the process of obtaining all the facts concerning this incident and, as such, it is too soon to estimate the ultimate financial exposure of this tragic accident. Current facts as known to us indicate that it is probable this accident will adversely impact the financial results of the Company’s 2020 first quarter. It is highly likely that, once all facts are determined, the estimated ultimate cost of this tragic accident will reduce first quarter diluted earnings per share to an amount below the low-end of the Company’s 2020 first quarter diluted earnings per share guidance. While our evaluation is still preliminary and our investigation continues, the Company’s pre-tax loss exposure at the time of this accident included our $5 million self-insured retention and up to $3.5 million relating to aggregate losses above our self-insured retention during an annual policy year (May 1 to April 30). Additional insurance and claims expense of $8.5 million in the 2020 first quarter would result in a charge of $0.16 per diluted share.”

Gattoni concluded, “Based on the range of revenue estimated for the 2020 first quarter and excluding the cost of the ultimate resolution of this recent tragic accident, I would anticipate diluted earnings per share to be in a range of $1.10 to $1.20. This range of diluted earnings per share includes insurance and claims expense estimated at 4.0 percent of BCO revenue, representing average insurance and claims costs as a percentage of BCO revenue over the past three years.”

GUIDANCE:

Landstar System sees Q1 2020 EPS of $1.10-$1.20, versus the consensus of $1.33.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Landstar System (LSTR) click here.

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