U.S. Auto Sales Not Likely to Break 16M Anytime Soon...
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Overall Analyst Rating:
SELL (= Flat)
Dividend Yield: 0.4%
EPS Growth %: +20.4%
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Here are some things -- aside from fuel costs rising -- which will keep automakers from returning to the heyday of selling above 16 million units in the U.S. each year:
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), to name a few.
That's right...tech companies are going to dampen automotive growth.
Once a writ of passage into adulthood for many -- and the chance to exercise unrivaled freedom -- many young teens and adults are eschewing efforts to attain a drivers license as social media and other forms of communication continue to make connecting easier and easier.
According to data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, the number of 17-year-olds holding a drivers license fell from 69 percent in 1983 to just 50 percent in 2008. For Americans aged 20 to 24 years, the number dropped from 92 percent in 1983 to 82 percent in 2008.
The study also showed those countries with substantial Internet usage showed similar declines in licensed drivers.
Other factors influencing the numbers include a tough economy, high costs of owning and maintaining a vehicle, and a shift by young adults to more urban areas (where driving needs are less).
Edmunds.com is modeling for sales of about 14.9 million in 2012 while Ford (NYSE: F) has a similar 14.5 million to 15 million unit range.
The meltdown in financial markets during 2008 forced many teenagers and young adults into connecting virtually. Whether this mindset will change is a tough question, although a safe answer would probably be not over the near term...
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), to name a few.
That's right...tech companies are going to dampen automotive growth.
Once a writ of passage into adulthood for many -- and the chance to exercise unrivaled freedom -- many young teens and adults are eschewing efforts to attain a drivers license as social media and other forms of communication continue to make connecting easier and easier.
According to data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, the number of 17-year-olds holding a drivers license fell from 69 percent in 1983 to just 50 percent in 2008. For Americans aged 20 to 24 years, the number dropped from 92 percent in 1983 to 82 percent in 2008.
The study also showed those countries with substantial Internet usage showed similar declines in licensed drivers.
Other factors influencing the numbers include a tough economy, high costs of owning and maintaining a vehicle, and a shift by young adults to more urban areas (where driving needs are less).
Edmunds.com is modeling for sales of about 14.9 million in 2012 while Ford (NYSE: F) has a similar 14.5 million to 15 million unit range.
The meltdown in financial markets during 2008 forced many teenagers and young adults into connecting virtually. Whether this mindset will change is a tough question, although a safe answer would probably be not over the near term...
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