Solar Stocks Fall as Barron's Interview Spooks Bulls (FSLR, WFR, STP, more)
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Most solar stocks are moving lower today even in light of crude oil which finished slightly higher this afternoon. Traders are attributing the weakness to a bearish article in Barron's over the weekend. The Claymore/MAC Global Solar Index ETF (NYSE: TAN), or the TAN, is down more than 1.2% today.
The publication did an interview with Hapoalim Securities Gordon Johnson, a noted-solar bear for quite some time now (October 2008). The analyst is currently expecting supply within the PV sector of 7.1GW for 2009 and 10.8GW for 2010. Looking at demand, Johnson is modeling for 4.3-4.5GW this year and about 6GW next year. Bottom line, "things will remain challenging for the solar companies."
Johnson believes solar stocks have recently run due to unwarranted excitement related to a recent announcement out of China that it will consider a local feed-in tariff. The analyst believes that this recent rally allows bearish investors a great entry point to short.
Taking a look at some individual stocks the analyst covers:
- MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) - $9 price target. The stock is down 3.4% to $16.71.
- Suntech (NYSE: STP) - modeling for EPS of $0.07 in '09 and $0.12 next year, $9 price target. The Street is looking for FY09 and FY10 EPS of $0.21 and $0.58, respectively. The stock is down 2.9% to $15.30.
- First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) - FY09 EPS estimate of $6.56, FY10 estimate of $3.07. The Street is currently looking for FY09 and FY10 EPS of $7.25 and $7.29, respectively. Shares are down 3.3% to $147.89.
- SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA) - sees FY09 EPS of $0.98, versus the consensus of $1.19, and FY10 EPS of $1.11, versus the Street estimate of $1.84, $15 price target. The stock is down 0.6% to $30.33.
- Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) - calls its "probably the best-positioned", $24 price target. Stock is up 2.9% to $32.27.
- Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) - $9 price target. Shares are down 2.9% to $12.24.
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Comments
We Are Still Not Prepared...
We are still not doing much about defending our economy from the next inevitable oil shock or we are just paralyzed and unwilling to grow our economy once again . We appear to be well aware that we need to prepare for our recovery with ample supplies of any energy sources. We cannot continue to look at today's oil prices and keep kidding ourselves that we cannot justify investing in solar stocks and its oversupplies of solar panels. Supply and demand mechanisms is not simply something to gawk at, but to manipulate for our own good, if you will. We cannot allow the oil traders to run our economy, and we damn know that..
Can Polysilicon Be Recycled?
First Solar is the only game in recyclable solar panels. I dont know about polysilicon panels, but are they recyclable? General Electric is now considering copying First Solar's own solar panels. It should tell you something ... huh? If you are spooked by this Barron's interview about oversupply, you got no brains!
Forget Oil Prices!
I dont care where the oil or gas prices are going tomorrow or next year. All I know is that our economy can no longer depend on oil to power our next recovery, period! High or low oil prices make no difference , anymore .. All I know is that our economy needs more power to grow again. Just forget oil price futures and buy solar stocks. Someone got to push solar forward and Wall Street patsies need not apply...
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What It Adds Up To..
Gumby on Sep 30, 2009 11:39 AMWe can turn more to coal which is practically unlimited in supply, but everyone knows that we cannot burn too much of it everyday, never mind firewood, too. We burn over one billion tons of coal annually which is godawfully enough! I think we still lack focus on our economy of the future. Hold the desserts... we have work to do first, then we can enjoy the fruits of our labor later.