Nomura Securities Global Weekly Economic Monitor - Looking Beyond Europe
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Nomura Securities Global Weekly Economic Monitor - Looking Beyond Europe
The ECB and BOE are likely to ease policy, but perhaps the bigger focus will be on China's PMI and US non-farm payrolls, both of which could disappoint.
Highlighted Points on Global Expectations:
1) We expect growth in 2012 to slow, as the eurozone enters recession and there are knock-on effects to the rest of the world.
2) The US should be sufficiently resilient to eke out 2%-plus growth, while reconstruction spending should spur Japan‘s growth.
3) We expect China‘s growth to reaccelerate in the second half after a first half slowdown to just above 8%.
4a) Upside risks: US consumers shrug off post-crisis blues, releasing pent-up demand; oil prices drop; euro tensions ease further
4b) Downside risks: More policy errors in Europe; the US end-2012 fiscal cliff effect; a China investment slump.
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The ECB and BOE are likely to ease policy, but perhaps the bigger focus will be on China's PMI and US non-farm payrolls, both of which could disappoint.
Highlighted Points on Global Expectations:
1) We expect growth in 2012 to slow, as the eurozone enters recession and there are knock-on effects to the rest of the world.
2) The US should be sufficiently resilient to eke out 2%-plus growth, while reconstruction spending should spur Japan‘s growth.
3) We expect China‘s growth to reaccelerate in the second half after a first half slowdown to just above 8%.
4a) Upside risks: US consumers shrug off post-crisis blues, releasing pent-up demand; oil prices drop; euro tensions ease further
4b) Downside risks: More policy errors in Europe; the US end-2012 fiscal cliff effect; a China investment slump.
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