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UBS on U.S. Retailers: Back-To-School Off To Good Start (TJX, ROST, GPS, LTD)

August 27, 2012 10:20 AM EDT
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UBS on U.S. Retailers: Back-To-School Off To Good Start

Analyst, Roxanne Meyer, sees most retailers starting Q3 in good shape as the majority of the companies reported positive Q2 results, which are carrying over. She noted that 53% of retailers have in-line or less promotions than last year. Despite many denim promotions, this year's other fashions are driving good traffic trends. Also of note, hotter weather trends have cooled.

Meyer said, "We continue to see market share gains from “sticky” off-pricer traffic, consumers’ focus on value, and strong availability of product. On Q2 earnings calls, TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) indicated that August was off to a good start (guidance: +5-6%) and Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST) guided to August comps of +4-5%; we see upside opportunity for Gap (NYSE: GPS): momentum likely to continue given well controlled promos, including a YOY downtick at month-end at both Gap and Old Navy, and see slight upside vs. current consensus. Limited (NYSE: LTD): appears to have offered incremental gift with purchase offers to drive traffic vs. tough 2 yr compares; we look for less upside potential this month."


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