Nomura Securities on U.S. Autos: V-Shaped Recovery to 16 Million Units

Nomura Securities on U.S. Autos: V-Shaped Recovery

Analysts, Anindya Das, Masataka Kunugimoto, said, "US auto sales to continue V-shaped recovery, exceeding 16mn units in 2014. We retain our 2012 light vehicle demand forecast at 14.4mn units up 12% y-y. We see 2013 ending with 15.4mn units sold, up 7% y-y and 2014 up 6% y-y at 16.4mn. We believe that the surfacing of healthy replacement demand after insufficient trend sales in 2008–09, coupled with continuing growth in the driving population should result in annual y-y sales growth in the US light vehicle market through 2014. Given their exposure to the pickup truck segment, the US OEMs are best positioned to benefit from any increase in housing and construction activity. Additionally, US automakers likely to benefit as SUV to CUV cannibalization ends.

Stocks of Note: Ford (NYSE: F), GM (NYSE: GM), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Meritor (Nasdaq: MTOR), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Dana (NYSE: DAN), Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), Motorcar Parts of America (Nasdaq: MPAA), Visteon (NYSE: VC) and Fuel Systems Solutions (Nasdaq: FSYS)

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