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Barclays on U.S. Insurance/Life: 1Q11 Earnings Review: Strong 1Q11 Results, Valuation Is Attractive

May 18, 2011 1:07 PM EDT
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Barclays on U.S. Insurance/Life: 1Q11 Earnings Review: Strong 1Q11 Results, Valuation Is Attractive

Barclays analyst says, "Life insurers' 1Q11 results exceeded our expectations and reinforce our view that EPS and ROE should recover as the economy improves and the yield curve remains steep. Robust equity market performance has also been a tailwind. Life insurers' valuations appear attractive compared to property-casualty (P&C) insurers."

"US variable annuity sales and net flows showed continued positive trends for most companies we cover. Fixed annuity sales remain subdued due to the low interest rate environment...Group insurance results were mostly better than anticipated."

"The financial impact of the Japan earthquake should be immaterial. MetLife (NYSE: MET) and Prudential (NYSE: PRU) expect roughly a $0.08/shr impact in 2Q11 reflecting elevated claims, although sales momentum remains strong. AFLAC (NYSE: AFL) reiterated its 2011 EPS guidance including a $0.03/shr impact from the Japan earthquake in 1Q11."

"Valuations of life insurance stocks are below historical average levels based on forward P/E as well as price-to-book excluding AOCI, and also appear attractively valued compared to the P&C insurance stocks. We believe the life insurance sector could be revalued upward as these companies generate increasingly consistent results. Life insurers' ROEs should improve, but remain below peak historical levels. Our top life insurance picks are MET, AFL, PRU, and Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP)."


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