Canaccord Genuity: Natural Gas Prices Rise Despite Slightly Bearish EIA Storage Number

August 31, 2012 9:25 AM EDT
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Canaccord Genuity: Natural Gas Prices Rise Despite Slightly Bearish EIA Storage Number

Analyst, John Gerdes, said, "The EIA reported a 66 Bcf storage injection, above the 65 Bcf consensus expectation and our 59 Bcf estimate. Storage stands at 3,374 Bcf, 14% above last year and 12% above the five-year average. The data suggests the market is ~2
Bcfpd undersupplied on a weather-normalized quarterly moving average basis. Though the storage number was above the consensus, gas is up $0.07 in the afternoon."

"We are adjusting our injection estimate for the next report to 50 Bcf. The y/y surplus should decline ~14 Bcf next week (2 Bcfpd) with degree days flat y/y."

"Of gas-weighted names, we note Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG)(BUY, PT$69) has 10%+ upside potential even in our bear-case commodity price scenario ($4 gas/$82.50 WTI). Our target is based on a discounted cash flow analysis and applies a 13.75% discount rate."


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