Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: August Sales: Solid Pace Persists
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Up: 7 | Down: 5 | New: 25
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Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: August Sales: Solid pace persists
Analyst, Brian A. Johnson, said, "We estimate August US light vehicle SAAR to come in at 14.2mn, in line with the YTD average and would keep full-year 2012 US sales on path to reach low-mid 14mn. A figure of 14.2mn would represent a y/y improvement of 13% on a DSR basis, and a run rate improvement of 1.7mn (albeit off a low comp due to the earthquake). Our estimate is slightly above the July result of 14.1mn, but down somewhat from the June result of 14.4mn. We anticipate unit sales of 1.26mn, an increase from 1.07mn units in August 2011, although it should be noted that there is one more selling day this month (27 days) than in August 2011, which will likely cause headline percentage changes to be ~4% above DSR-adjusted numbers.
- A 14.2mn print would demonstrate fundamental health of the US industry; reiterate
2012 sales estimate of 14.4mn.
- Light truck sales trending well, 2H rebound pushing forward. We anticipate large
pickups to account for 11% of the total industry.
- D3 expected to gain some share, but remain relatively low.
Stocks of Note: Ford (NYSE: F), GM (NYSE: GM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), Toyota (NYSE: TM), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Meritor (Nasdaq: MTOR), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Lear Corp (NYSE: LEA), Federal Mogul (Nasdaq: FDML) and Dana (NYSE: DAN)
Analyst, Brian A. Johnson, said, "We estimate August US light vehicle SAAR to come in at 14.2mn, in line with the YTD average and would keep full-year 2012 US sales on path to reach low-mid 14mn. A figure of 14.2mn would represent a y/y improvement of 13% on a DSR basis, and a run rate improvement of 1.7mn (albeit off a low comp due to the earthquake). Our estimate is slightly above the July result of 14.1mn, but down somewhat from the June result of 14.4mn. We anticipate unit sales of 1.26mn, an increase from 1.07mn units in August 2011, although it should be noted that there is one more selling day this month (27 days) than in August 2011, which will likely cause headline percentage changes to be ~4% above DSR-adjusted numbers.
- A 14.2mn print would demonstrate fundamental health of the US industry; reiterate
2012 sales estimate of 14.4mn.
- Light truck sales trending well, 2H rebound pushing forward. We anticipate large
pickups to account for 11% of the total industry.
- D3 expected to gain some share, but remain relatively low.
Stocks of Note: Ford (NYSE: F), GM (NYSE: GM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), Toyota (NYSE: TM), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Meritor (Nasdaq: MTOR), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Lear Corp (NYSE: LEA), Federal Mogul (Nasdaq: FDML) and Dana (NYSE: DAN)
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