Nomura Securities Maintains a 'Neutral' on Peabody Energy (BTU); Chopping Estimates and PT
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Price: $25.48 --0%
Rating Summary:
7 Buy, 12 Hold, 7 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 7 | Down: 11 | New: 19
Rating Summary:
7 Buy, 12 Hold, 7 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 7 | Down: 11 | New: 19
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Nomura Securities maintains a 'Neutral' on Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) price target of $25.00 (from $38.00).
Analyst, Curt Woodworth, said, "We are significantly reducing our earnings estimates for Peabody for 2012 and 2013 to reflect the impact of recent commodity price revisions at Nomura as well as lower trend line earnings power exiting 2012. We have reduced our 2012 EPS estimate to $1.85 (was $2.45) and our 2013 estimate moves to $1.65 from $3.20. We now incorporate benchmark seaborne thermal prices of $105/tonne for JFY 2013. Note that even with benchmark prices of $115/tonne for seaborne thermal and $220/tonne for metallurgical coal for 3Q-12, BTU is forecast to earn only $0.40 of EPS, an annual run rate of $1.60. We now project that 4Q EPS is likely to decline sequentially owing to lower coking coal ASP given the significant decline in spot prices recently to $190/tonne according to Platts. We have reduced our price target, which assumes BTU trades near the median of its historical forward multiple at 7.3x 2013 EV/EBITDA. Plummeting Spot HCC Prices Create Downside Risks for EPS. For Peabody, the weaker market fundamentals are compounded by company specific issues, which are negatively impacting ASP realization and cost performance. FY 12E EPS from USD 2.45 to USD 1.85; FY 13E EPS from USD 3.20 to USD 1.65."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Peabody Energy click here. For more ratings news on Peabody Energy click here.
Shares of Peabody Energy closed at $20.55 yesterday.
Analyst, Curt Woodworth, said, "We are significantly reducing our earnings estimates for Peabody for 2012 and 2013 to reflect the impact of recent commodity price revisions at Nomura as well as lower trend line earnings power exiting 2012. We have reduced our 2012 EPS estimate to $1.85 (was $2.45) and our 2013 estimate moves to $1.65 from $3.20. We now incorporate benchmark seaborne thermal prices of $105/tonne for JFY 2013. Note that even with benchmark prices of $115/tonne for seaborne thermal and $220/tonne for metallurgical coal for 3Q-12, BTU is forecast to earn only $0.40 of EPS, an annual run rate of $1.60. We now project that 4Q EPS is likely to decline sequentially owing to lower coking coal ASP given the significant decline in spot prices recently to $190/tonne according to Platts. We have reduced our price target, which assumes BTU trades near the median of its historical forward multiple at 7.3x 2013 EV/EBITDA. Plummeting Spot HCC Prices Create Downside Risks for EPS. For Peabody, the weaker market fundamentals are compounded by company specific issues, which are negatively impacting ASP realization and cost performance. FY 12E EPS from USD 2.45 to USD 1.85; FY 13E EPS from USD 3.20 to USD 1.65."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Peabody Energy click here. For more ratings news on Peabody Energy click here.
Shares of Peabody Energy closed at $20.55 yesterday.
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