Nomura Securities on Retailing: April Sales Preview - Not As Good As March

April 30, 2012 9:41 AM EDT
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Nomura Securities on Retailing: April Sales Preview - Not As Good As March

Analyst, Paual Lejuez, said, "After two very strong months helped by warm weather, we believe trends slowed somewhat in April overall and as the month progressed. Weather, while still favorable, was also not quite as good as it has been in the past two months, particularly in week 4."

"Neither Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST) nor TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) updated Apr comp guidance after posting strong March results, and we expect both to raise EPS guidance with Apr results. GPS will also provide 1Q guidance since it’s the third month of the qtr and we believe it will be above consensus of $0.39 (we are at $0.44)."

"Macy's (NYSE: M) and American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) continue to be our top picks. At M, we believe the company has found the right balance btwn sales and promotions, and expect upside to F12 estimates. As JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) repositions its image and pricing, we believe M is a key beneficiary. At AEO, we believe CEO Robert Hanson is bringing a new ROIC discipline, which is much needed. Trading at ~5.5x our F12E EBITDA and with a 11% FCF yield, we believe the risk/reward is very favorable."


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