UPDATE - UBS Initiates Coverage on Ariad Pharma (ARIA) with a Buy; Ponatinib Can Be A Billion Dollar Drug

April 12, 2012 11:04 AM EDT
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Price: $24.82 -0.48%

Rating Summary:
    10 Buy, 12 Hold, 3 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 12 | Down: 15 | New: 40
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UPDATE - UBS initiates coverage on Ariad Pharma (Nasdaq: ARIA) with a Buy. PT $20.

Analyst, Matthew Harrison, said, "We believe Ariad’s lead compound for CML, ponatinib, can be a ~$1B drug in 2nd/3rd line CML alone and is worth $14/share. The potential for long term dosing is a key upside driver underap preciated by the Street (each add’l month of median duration adds ~$0.60/share). Also, we believe modest 1st line market share of ~5% is achievable even with generic Gleevec and add ~$3/share for 1st line. Further, we see AP26113 as an underappreciated asset with key data in 2H12."

"Near-term stance: AP26113 the key driver; ASCO just confirmatory: For the stock, we believe the biggest near-term driver is Phase I/II data from AP26113 in 2H. We believe most already have sig. sales and low risk-adjustments for ponatinib, such that the ASCO data should only confirm the assumed profile and not lead to a major stock move."

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