Nomura Securities on Global Capital Markets: Adjusting Estimates and PTs

Nomura Securities on Global Capital Markets: Adjusting Estimates and PTs

Analysts, Glenn Schorr & Keith Murray, said, "The fact that 1Q12 capital markets results are likely to be pretty good seems baked into the stocks, so the key question is can there be some follow-thru beyond 1Q? While there will likely be normal seasonality, we are not expecting to repeat the pattern we saw in 2010 and 2011: solid starts followed by meaningful swoons. Even after the solid rally so far this year, financials continue to trade at low enough multiples and could see further lift as we think active investors generally remain underweight the group relative to their respective benchmarks. For brokers and universal banks, we favor C, JPM, and GS. Among the asset managers, we like IVZ (our top pick) and BLK. Among the online brokers, ETFC remains our top pick.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS): 2012E/2013E EPS from $12.00/ $14.00 to $12.50/$14.00 vs. Street $11.49/ $13.15, respectively; PT from $135 to $145

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS): 2012E/2013E EPS from $1.62/ $2.10 to $1.66/ $2.15 vs. Street $1.77/ $2.30, respectively; PT remains $20

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC): 2012E/2013E EPS from $0.72/ $1.06 to $0.69/ $1.05 vs. Street $0.67/ $1.02, respectively; PT from $9 to $10

Citi (NYSE: C): 2012E/2013E EPS from $4.03/ $4.60 to $3.90/ $4.70 vs. Street $4.01/ $4.67, respectively; PT from $41 to $47

JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM): 2012E/2013E EPS from $4.70/ $5.35 to $4.75/ $5.55 vs. Street $4.75/ $5.42, respectively; PT from $48 to $55

Bank of NY/Mellon (NYSE: BK): 2012E/2013E EPS from $2.24/ $2.50 to $2.25/ $2.55 vs. Street $2.26/ $2.53, respectively; PT from $23 to $26

Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS): 2012E/2013E EPS from $2.92/ $3.37 to $2.93/ $3.40 vs. Street $2.93/ $3.39, respectively; PT from $45 to $48

State Street (NYSE: STT): 2012E/2013E EPS from $3.86/ $4.45 to $3.92/ $4.55 vs. Street $3.90/ $4.53, respectively; PT from $45 to $50

Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN): 2012E/2013E EPS from $9.26/ $10.39 to $9.30/ $10.44 vs. Street $9.19/ $10.18, respectively; PT from $124 to $125

BlackRock (NYSE: BLK): 2012E/2013E EPS from $14.15/ $15.60 to $14.12/ $15.80 vs. Street $13.18/ $15.01, respectively; PT from $218 to $221

Invesco (NYSE: IVZ): 2012E/2013E EPS from $1.89/ $2.25 to $1.94/ $2.30 vs. Street $1.88/ $2.22, respectively; PT from $29 to $30

Legg Mason (NYSE: LM): 2012E/2013E EPS from $2.01/ $2.35 to $2.05/ $2.40 vs. Street $1.87/ $2.27, respectively; PT from $28 to $29

T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW): 2012E/2013E EPS from $3.31/ $3.95 to $3.37/ $4.01 vs. Street $3.26/ $3.72, respectively. PT from $63 to $64

AMERITRADE (Nasdaq: AMTD): 2012E/2013E EPS from $1.08/ $1.30 to $1.10/ $1.33 vs. Street $1.12/ $1.33, respectively; PT from $17 to $20

E*TRADE Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC): 2012E/2013E EPS from $0.60/ $0.98 to $0.60/ $0.98 vs. Street $0.52/ $0.73, respectively; PT from $10 to $13

Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW): 2012E/2013E EPS from $0.68/ $0.85 to $0.70/ $0.90 vs. Street $0.70/ $0.85, respectively; PT from $12 to $14.50

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