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Jefferies Q1 Preview on Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Q1 Preview - Three Rail Stocks May Miss

April 2, 2012 8:03 AM EDT
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Price: $71.60 +3.16%

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    21 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell

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Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Jefferies Q1 Preview on Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Q1 Preview

Analyst, Peter Nesvold, sees the mild winter weather versus mild freight volumes counterbalancing for Q1.

Nesvold said, "A potential 2Q recovery in Asia airfreight volumes remains our favorite investment theme. Near term, we see the biggest EPS beats at Knight (NYSE: KNX) and UPS (NYSE: UPS), and the biggest misses at FreightCar America (Nasdaq: RAIL), Heartland Express (Nasdaq: HTLD), and CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX)."

The Jefferies analyst maintains a 'Buy' on CSX, and lowers price target from $29 to $28. Greenbrier (NYSE: GBX) price target cut from $27 to $22. Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) from $81 to $76. RAIL from $31 to $29.

Nesvold commented on rails, "We do believe some benefit from the warm weather has accrued to the railroads as rail velocity has improved sharply over the past few months, as lower coal volumes and improved fluidity have allowed for increased train speeds...While rail traffic is flat to slightly down YoY, it’s still near cyclical highs. This creates an unusually difficult modeling challenge: how to balance the headwind of lower coal volumes against the tailwind of improved productivity?"


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