Nomura Securities on Cruise Line: Higher Fuel Cost from Low-Sulfur Fuels - Yields May Need to Increase to Offset

March 23, 2012 8:24 AM EDT
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Nomura Securities on Cruise Line: Higher Fuel Cost from Low-Sulfur Fuels - Yields May Need to Increase 2%-3% Per Year to Offset

After hosting a conference call on the outlook for bunker fuel costs, analyst, Harry C. Curtis, said, "Environmental Control Area (ECA) emission regulation, effective on 8/1/2012, will require ships to burn low-sulfur fuels within 200 miles of the U.S. (ex. the Bahamas and western Alaska), Canada, and France. Additional ECAs around Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will follow in 1/1/2014. Mr. Meech expects higher demand for low-sulfur fuels to increase bunker costs by $100 per metric ton (pmt) in 2012 as ships alter their fuel mix to meet with emissions regulations."

Curtis notes that Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) should see not material impact from the changes, citing RCL 50%+ hedge positions in fuel. Carnival (NYSE: CCL), however, expects $35-45 mln in additional costs. Although, Curtis is positive on the sector and thinks at current valuation, CCL & RCL are attractive. He sees the stocks trading on European news, but use any pullbacks to add to positions.


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