UBS North American Metals Update: Demand Wins the Day- Upgrading NUE/STLD

March 19, 2012 10:33 AM EDT
Get Alerts NUE Hot Sheet
Price: $243.63 --0%

Rating Summary:
    19 Buy, 9 Hold, 2 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 6 | Down: 4 | New: 55
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UBS North American Metals Update: Demand Wins the Day- Upgrading NUE/STLD

Analyst, Shneur Z. Gershuni, said, "Buyers are playing a game of chicken with mills; inventories are relatively low and prices have fallen, and demand continues to improve. We see buyers blinking and prices moving up from here. Imports, quite attractive six weeks ago, should decrease and buyers may be forced to restock into rising prices. Last week saw a round of hikes from several mills, we expect more to come, adding support."

"We upgrade Nucor (NYSE: NUE) and Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD) as both will benefit from improving steel pricing and demand. We see valuations as reasonable given the expectation for growth and believe that a 1x turn premium to historical EV/EBITDA is warranted. That said, we await a firmer construction market before going “all in” on the mini-mills."

"U.S. Steel remains our most preferred on exposure to attractive end markets (auto, manufacturing, tubular), strong earnings tailwinds, and significant operating leverage. That said, all steel names should benefit from better pricing and demand."


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