Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Guess (GES): Definitely Not Wearing Green for St. Patty’s Day

March 16, 2012 10:21 AM EDT
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Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Guess (NYSE: GES): Definitely not wearing green for St. Patty’s Day.

Shares of Guess were deep in the red on Thursday (and are down 1.4% this morning) after providing a disappointing outlook for the coming quarter and fiscal year as spending in Europe continues to be week. Management expects Q1 earnings of $0.25-0.28 per share on revenue of $560-575 million, well below the consensus estimate of $0.48 on $609.7 million. For the full year, the company sees earnings in the range of $2.50-2.65 per share on revenue of $2.74-2.78 billion versus the $3.18 on $2.83 billion analysts were expecting. CEO Paul Marciano said, ‘We expect European consumers, many in the south of Europe, to be affected in the short term by the austerity plans unless something dramatic happens with credit, banking or consumer confidence there.” Last year, European sales made up nearly 40% of Guess’ top line. While weak sales are expected, margin pressures caused by rising cotton costs are expected to retract somewhat during the year. CFO Michael Prince said, “That pressure should abate somewhat, given some relief in cotton prices. However, we expect that relief will be offset by the cost of goods impact of a relatively weaker euro.”


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