Nomura Securities on U.S. Publishing and Advertising Agencies: Quarterly Noise Masks Good Year

March 2, 2012 8:56 AM EST
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Nomura Securities on U.S. Publishing and Advertising Agencies

Analyst, Michael Nathanson, said, "Revisiting IPG and OMC and revising estimates. After a very volatile year, 2011 ended up being a good year for the agencies, especially Omnicom and Interpublic. For the full year, IPG ended up with growth of 6.1%, tied with OMC at the top of the peer group. North America growth slowed by 360bps to 5.1%, but the region still contributed over 40% of organic revenue growth during 2011. The rest of the world accelerated by 380bps to show the fastest growth for the year (+11.2%), while Europe showed 60bps of acceleration to 3.3%.We continue to prefer our Buy-rated media companies that have exposure to resilient national U.S. television advertising and recurring affiliate fee revenues."

Details of model changes:

Omnicom Group (NYSE: OMC) (Neutral): 2012E/2013E – Rev from 14,210 to 14,450; EBIT from 1,801 to 1,837; EPS from $3.67 to $3.72; PT remains $52.

Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG) (Neutral): 2012E/2013E – Rev from 7,284 to 7,282; EBIT from 769 to 759; EPS from $0.87 to $0.84; PT from $12 to $12.50.


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