Q4 Preview: Gap (GPS) Should Be In-Line, But Investors Have Old Navy On the Brain

February 23, 2012 3:46 PM EST
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Price: $24.55 --0%

Rating Summary:
    14 Buy, 23 Hold, 3 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 12 | Down: 15 | New: 40
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The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is trading higher Thursday heading into its fourth-quarter earnings report, expected out after the market closes.

The Street is currently looking for EPS of 42 cents and revs of $4.28 billion. Earnings would be a 30 percent dip from earnings of 60 cents per share reported in the same period last year.

Looking at peer Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), which issued results late Wednesday, both earnings and sales beat consensus views, though first-quarter and full-year 2012 EPS guidance was a little light.

Gap shares moved about 1 percent higher through the quarter, to $18.98 at the end of January. The stock is 23.4 percent higher since the end of the last quarter.

Current data from Bloomberg has six analysts at Buy, 22 with a Hold, and four at Sell on Gap. The price target average is $21.50 with a low of $15 and high of $28. Over the last 52-weeks, Gap has traded in the range of $15.08 ti $23.73.

Heading into results, Wedbush sees an in-line fourth-quarter report with EPS at 42 cents and revs of $4.28 billion. The firm commented: "Although investors may be optimistic regarding improved Spring women's apparel at the core Gap brand, we believe management may address disappointment with Old Navy's inability to effectively compete against other value retailers in terms of merchandising and marketing messages."

Looking ahead, Wedbush thinks management will stick to not providing quarterly guidance, but the firm is currently modeling first-quarter earnings of 36 cents and revs of $3.28 billion. For fiscal 2012, the firm raised it's EPS outlook from $1.78 prior now to $1.80, which they expected to be in-line with management views.

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out Gap's past performance at Streetinsider's Gap's Income Statement.


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