Q4 Preview: Sands (LVS) Becoming More Macau, But Slowing Revs, Outlook in Focus

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) shares are higher Wednesday heading into its fourth-quarter report, expected out after the market closes.

The Street is currently expecting Sands to report earnings of 57 cents per share on revenue of $2.47 billion. Sands simply meeting expectations means the casino giant's earnings gained about 36 percent over the same period last year.

Shares of the company gained about 11.6 percent to $42.73 in the quarter. The stock is up 17.5 percent since the end of the quarter, but finished 2011 down 7 percent. Sands shares have traded within a range of $36.05 to $50.68 over the last year, with the recent high coming just a few days ago. Coincidentally, Sands was at an annual high during the winter last year as well.

Sands is more Macau-focused now. Over the final quarter in the region, revenue was 73.517 billion pactas, a 33 percent gain over the same period in 2010. Further, Las Vegas saw some gains later in the year, with Strip revs up 13.3 percent in October and about 9 percent in November.

Data from Bloomberg has 23 analysts with a Buy on Sands, three at Hold, and two with a Sell rating. The Street's price target average is $37, with a low of $48 and high of $70.

Notably, the analyst price target average suggests about 26 percent of downside for the shares.

Analyst Comments

• Goldman Sachs is modeling for earnings of 51 cents per share, revs of $2.5 billion. and adjusted EBITDA of $870 million. Specifically, Goldman sees EBITDA of $405 million in Macau, $386 million in Singapore, $98 million in Las Vegas, and $23 million for Pennsylvania.
  
  Key items on the call which Goldman thinks investors will focus on: "(1) the opening of the first phase of Sands Cotai Central, the opening is scheduled to take place at the end of February, (2) further color on the use of free cash (be it a dividend or new expansion projects) will also be expected and (3) expectations for the Singapore property in 2012 as gaming in that market is still very young."
  
  
• Wells Fargo sees revs of about $2.45 billion and net EBITDA of $898.3 million with normalized EBITDA of $881 million. Macau EBITDA of $423 million, Singapore to $406.6 million, and Las Vegas of $93.3 million.
  
  The firm commented: "In our view, consensus estimates appear fair, but we note we are 7% below the street in Macau for 2012. In our view, consensus targets don’t factor increasing risks in Macau."

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out Sands' past performance at Streetinsider's Sands' Income Statement.

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