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Q1 Preview: Starbucks (SBUX) Solid in US, But International is Where It Counts

January 26, 2012 3:32 PM EST
Get Alerts SBUX Hot Sheet
Price: $107.23 +3.12%

Rating Summary:
    26 Buy, 22 Hold, 5 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Shares of Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) are trading up nearly 0.06 percent Thursday ahead of the release of its first-quarter results after the closing bell.

The Wall Street quarterly consensus for Starbucks is $0.49 per share in earnings on $3.29 billion in sales. During the first quarter of last year, the company reported earnings of $0.45 per share on $2.95 billion in total sales.

For the fiscal year 2012, analysts on the Street are currently estimating $1.83 per share in earnings on $13.03 billion in total sales.

The first quarter conference call is scheduled for 5:00 pm ET.

According to data from Bloomberg, shares of Starbucks have 19 Buy ratings, eight Hold ratings and two Sell ratings. The average price target on shares of SBUX is $51 with a range from $42 to $59.

Analyst Comments:

Goldman Sachs forecasts Starbucks’s first-quarter results will be inline with the Street’s expectations, but believes same-store sales will be above internationally and domestically. The firm estimates same-store sales growth of 8 percent domestically and 6 percent internationally.

An analyst at Goldman commented, “We expect SBUX to continue generating robust SSS outside the US, and expect commentary on the call to focus on growth plans in emerging markets, most notably China. The company will also report international results split into "EMEA" and "China and Asia Pacific" for the first time this quarter.”

Goldman reaffirmed its Neutral rating on the stock going into the release.

DA Davidson is bullish on the quarter as its forecasts earnings of $0.50 per share on $3.3 billion in total sales. The firm estimates operating margin will increase by 10 basis points to 17.1 percent. Internationally, same-store sales are projected to increase by 5 percent, while same-store sales are predicted to increase by 8 percent domestically.

An analyst noted some key conference call topics include, “What is the initial read on the blonde-roast introduction? We expect the lighter roast to materially benefit earnings over the next few years as Starbuck’s addressable market can expand with the broadening flavor profile; Has the K-cup launch pressured the growth rate of in-store drip coffee sales; What is management’s view on the strength of industry coffee sales; and Will management provide guidance on raising retail prices versus accruing pricing power?”

DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating and $55 price target on the company going into the release.


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