Nomura Securities on Trust Banks: 4Q Wrap-Up - Story Is Mostly More of The Same

January 19, 2012 9:57 AM EST
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Nomura Securities on Trust Banks: 4Q Wrap-Up

Analyst, Glenn Schorr, said, "While disappointing on the revenue front, we think trust bank earnings in 4Q were mostly a similar story to the past few quarters. On the positive front, capital is still strong, they have showed OK asset growth, NII stability and improving cost control. Unfortunately, revenue softness is evident in several fee buckets across asset servicing and asset management and FX and other trading revenues were a drag. With the macro and capital markets backdrop remaining subdued, increased compliance costs & capital requirements, Sec Lending and FX not material contributors and having little NII wiggle room given the rate environment, the cost save initiatives are well timed, but can only do so much at this point. Despite an industry focus on expense initiatives to help support the bottom line and low valuations, we are maintaining our Neutral view on the sector."

Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS): 2012E EPS from $3.00 to $2.90, 2013E from $3.35 to $3.30. TP from $42 to $41 (based on a target multiple of 14x our 2012E).

Bank of NY Mellon (NYSE: BK): 2012E EPS from $2.20 to $2.10, 2013E from $2.45 to $2.35. TP from $23 to $22 (based on a target multiple of 10.5x our 2012E)

State Street (NYSE: STT): 2012E EPS from $3.75 to $3.60, 2013E from $4.40 to $4.35. TP from $41 to $40 (based on a target multiple of 11x our 2012E).


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