UPDATE - Oppenheimer Downgraded Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) to Perform; Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

January 19, 2012 8:25 AM EST
Get Alerts PLOW Hot Sheet
Price: $42.18 +2.60%

Rating Summary:
    4 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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UPDATE - Oppenheimer downgraded Douglas Dynamics (NYSE: PLOW) from Outperform to Perform.

Analyst, Jim Giannakouros, said, "We downgrade PLOW, remove our $17 PT, and lower estimates after recent channel checks and an abnormally mild winter so far across the US. We had envisioned industry replacement cycle acceleration in 2012 after above-average snowfall and delayed equipment purchases (challenging economy) in 2008-2010 created pent-up demand. However, as the primary factors influencing plow sales are the number and severity of "plowable events" the previous winter, we believe low snowfall so far this year sets for a softer 2012 selling season. While investors are likely aware of the inherent y/y lumpiness in PLOW's business, we believe share price appreciation may be challenged in a declining unit sales environment."

"We are lowering our '11E revenue to $195.5M from $200.0M (vs. guidance of $185-215M), and our '11E EPS to $0.85 from $0.90 (vs. guidance of $0.76-1.04). We are lowering our 2012E revenue to $170M (-13% y/y) from $210M (+5% y/y), and lowering our '12E EPS to $0.65 (-24% y/y) from $1.05."

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