Canaccord Genuity on Biotechnology: 2012 Best Ideas - Aegerion (AEGR), Anthera (ANTH): A Year of Transformative, Yet Derisked Late-Stage Binary Catalysts
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Price: $1.97 --0%
Rating Summary:
8 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
8 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Canaccord Genuity on Life Sciences/Biotechnology: 2012 Best Ideas - Aegerion, Anthera: A Year of Transformative, Yet Derisked Late-Stage Binary Catalysts
Analyst, Ritu Baral, said, "We view Aegerion's (Nasdaq: AEGR) lomitapide potential as the best-in-class HoFH drug with a high chance of H2/12 approval, rapid market uptake, premium orphan pricing and over $400M worldwide peak sales. Lomitapide is AEGR’s Phase 3 drug for HoFH, a rare genetic disease that causes extremely high LDLs. HoFH currently has no approved drug options and is poorly treated with apharesis, a blood filtration procedure that only transiently controls patient LDLs. HoFH patients currently have their first heart attack or stroke at the average age of 20 and have a mean life span of around 30 years. Of two late-stage developmentstage candidates (lomitapide and ISIS/Genzyme’s Phase 3 anstisense drug mipomersen), we think lomitapide is the best-in-class HoFH drug in terms of tolerability and efficacy vs. mipomersen. We also expect that AEGR will be able to secure premium orphan pricing of $150,000 per year or more for lomitapide given its risk/benefit profile. AEGR plans to submit lomitapide’s NDA/MAA in Q1/12 and we expect full FDA approval after priority review in H2/12. Our $24 target is based on a pNPV analysis."
"We believe Anthera Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ANTH) has a good chance of success with PEARL-SC Phase 2/3 blisibimod topline lupus data due in July, Phase 3 varespladib VISTA-16 top-line ACS data in June. Blisibimod is Anthera’s Phase 2/3 BAFF peptibody for lupus, which we think will yield positive data from the ongoing PEARL-SC trial in Q2/12. We think the PEARL top-line data due in July has a very good chance of success based on good Phase 1/2 data precedent and strong scientific rationale. We also think ANTH’s sPLA2 inhibitor varespladib will show clinically meaningful benefit in post-ACS cardiovascular risk in mid-2012 from the ongoing pivotal VISTA-16 trial, from which pivotal top-line data is due around June 2012. ACS experts have noted to us that they believe the VISTA trial may be underpowered, but we think the VISTA trial blind event rate, which we expected to be released shortly in the trial’s interim analysis, may give positive insight into final data. We believe either positive lupus or ACS data could be the basis of a rich partnership or takeout."
Analyst, Ritu Baral, said, "We view Aegerion's (Nasdaq: AEGR) lomitapide potential as the best-in-class HoFH drug with a high chance of H2/12 approval, rapid market uptake, premium orphan pricing and over $400M worldwide peak sales. Lomitapide is AEGR’s Phase 3 drug for HoFH, a rare genetic disease that causes extremely high LDLs. HoFH currently has no approved drug options and is poorly treated with apharesis, a blood filtration procedure that only transiently controls patient LDLs. HoFH patients currently have their first heart attack or stroke at the average age of 20 and have a mean life span of around 30 years. Of two late-stage developmentstage candidates (lomitapide and ISIS/Genzyme’s Phase 3 anstisense drug mipomersen), we think lomitapide is the best-in-class HoFH drug in terms of tolerability and efficacy vs. mipomersen. We also expect that AEGR will be able to secure premium orphan pricing of $150,000 per year or more for lomitapide given its risk/benefit profile. AEGR plans to submit lomitapide’s NDA/MAA in Q1/12 and we expect full FDA approval after priority review in H2/12. Our $24 target is based on a pNPV analysis."
"We believe Anthera Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ANTH) has a good chance of success with PEARL-SC Phase 2/3 blisibimod topline lupus data due in July, Phase 3 varespladib VISTA-16 top-line ACS data in June. Blisibimod is Anthera’s Phase 2/3 BAFF peptibody for lupus, which we think will yield positive data from the ongoing PEARL-SC trial in Q2/12. We think the PEARL top-line data due in July has a very good chance of success based on good Phase 1/2 data precedent and strong scientific rationale. We also think ANTH’s sPLA2 inhibitor varespladib will show clinically meaningful benefit in post-ACS cardiovascular risk in mid-2012 from the ongoing pivotal VISTA-16 trial, from which pivotal top-line data is due around June 2012. ACS experts have noted to us that they believe the VISTA trial may be underpowered, but we think the VISTA trial blind event rate, which we expected to be released shortly in the trial’s interim analysis, may give positive insight into final data. We believe either positive lupus or ACS data could be the basis of a rich partnership or takeout."
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