Nomura Securities on U.S. Media: There’s Something Happening Here - Troubling Cable Net Ratings
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Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
11 Buy, 14 Hold, 4 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Nomura Securities on U.S. Media: There’s Something Happening Here - Troubling Cable Net Ratings
Analyst, Michael Nathanson, said, "Thanks to either the continued impact of the DVR, shifts in the Nielsen (Nasdaq: NLSN) sample, the NBA strike or slight changes in consumption patterns, live primetime TV viewership declined almost -5% – now 13 straight quarters of live declines. Surprisingly, among live viewing, broadcast ratings were down less than cable networks in Q4 (-3% vs. -5%, respectively)."
"However, looking at C3 viewing – the currency of the ad market over Oct. and Nov. – overall viewing trends fell by only -0.5%. Again, surprisingly, PT broadcast C3 viewing was up slightly (0.3%) due to positive influences of the DVR, while cable was down slightly (-1.1%)."
"We worry that the potential mix of lower scatter vs. scatter inflation and volatile cable network ratings could create negative cable network earnings revisions and multiple compression for smaller operators."
"Flowing through minor revisions and the current market multiple, we are increasing our TP for Disney (NYSE: DIS) to $44 (from $43), while decreasing Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to $53 (from $54), Discovery (Nasdaq: DISCA) to $46 (from $47), Scripps Networks (NYSE: SNI) to $45 (from $47). TPs for CBS (NYSE: CBS) ($28), News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) ($21) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) ($39) remain unchanged."
Analyst, Michael Nathanson, said, "Thanks to either the continued impact of the DVR, shifts in the Nielsen (Nasdaq: NLSN) sample, the NBA strike or slight changes in consumption patterns, live primetime TV viewership declined almost -5% – now 13 straight quarters of live declines. Surprisingly, among live viewing, broadcast ratings were down less than cable networks in Q4 (-3% vs. -5%, respectively)."
"However, looking at C3 viewing – the currency of the ad market over Oct. and Nov. – overall viewing trends fell by only -0.5%. Again, surprisingly, PT broadcast C3 viewing was up slightly (0.3%) due to positive influences of the DVR, while cable was down slightly (-1.1%)."
"We worry that the potential mix of lower scatter vs. scatter inflation and volatile cable network ratings could create negative cable network earnings revisions and multiple compression for smaller operators."
"Flowing through minor revisions and the current market multiple, we are increasing our TP for Disney (NYSE: DIS) to $44 (from $43), while decreasing Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to $53 (from $54), Discovery (Nasdaq: DISCA) to $46 (from $47), Scripps Networks (NYSE: SNI) to $45 (from $47). TPs for CBS (NYSE: CBS) ($28), News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) ($21) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) ($39) remain unchanged."
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