Wall Street Mostly Positive On Today's Dendreon (DNDN) News, But Mixed Over Near-Term

Shares of Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN) are surging 43 percent Thursday following an update on PROVENGE sales and commercialization. Now analysts are weighing in on the news:

• Collins Stewart said the Q4 PROVENGE revenue pre-announcement was above the consensus and metrics bode well for 2012. "While the company did not provide net Provenge revenue, management expects a similar ~6% gross-to-net discount in 4Q11 (to 3Q11) yielding net sales of ~$77M, above Street consensus of $72.3M and our estimate of $63.1M, the analyst said. "While management continues to expect modest QoQ Provenge revenue growth in 2012, we believe these launch metrics may bode well for DNDN's ability to accelerate Provenge uptake this year, they also said. The firm has a Neutral rating on the stock.
  
  
• Deutsche Bank notes that "Doc checks indicate that there has been an increase over the last 3 months in Provenge use/demand...Dendreon confirmed it is seeing same store growth for the first time. As of end of 4Q11 the co had 615 sites that had infused the product or have their patients scheduled for the first Provenge regimen. This is UP from 525 sites at the end of 3Q11." Management guided to modest growth in 2012, but cautioned investors against expecting more than 25-30% growth in next quarter or two. Deutsche Bank said growth should come from new sites primarily. The firm expects the January number will be strong. The firm maintained their Buy rating and $20 price target.
  
  
• Brean Murray noted that the Q4 consensus ($72M) likely still included some hepatitis C royalties from analysts that did not yet remove them due to Dendreon's sale of these royalties in early December, so the beat was more like $13 million rather than $10 million. "This result was clearly viewed as a positive for Dendreon, given the stock reaction that we view as way overdone, but we emphasize the competition to come from Zytiga once clinically successful and approved in the prechemotherapy setting, as well as from MDV3100 off‐label starting late in 2012," the firm notes. They rate the shares a Sell.
  
  
• Goldman Sachs said, "We view the acceleration of Provenge revenues as a clear positive. It shows that there is demand which could be monetized as reimbursement issues are being addressed, in line with our expectations." There were also by reimbursement time is now under 30 days, 75% of patients had minimal or no out-of-pocket costs, the number of accounts that have infused Provenge has increased from 425 accounts in 3Q2011 to 591 in 4Q2, and management seems extremely focused on managing costs. The firm maintained their Neutral rating.

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