Canaccord Genuity Maintains a 'Sell' on Seattle Genetics (SGEN); Increasing Adcetris Estimates, But Still Disconnect Between Valuation & Potential Sales
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Price: $228.74 --0%
Rating Summary:
10 Buy, 18 Hold, 5 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
10 Buy, 18 Hold, 5 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Canaccord Genuity maintains a 'Sell' on Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ: SGEN) price target raised $1 to $11.00.
Canaccord analyst, George Farmer, said, "Considering our Q3 ests. and informed by our est. annual HL/ALCL incidence rates as well as anecdotal evidence gleaned from ASH ‘11, we see Q4 Adcetris sales falling into a range of $21M-$31M depending on the number of EAP patients continuing therapy into Q4 and on incidence population penetration. Assuming that 80% of the converted Q3 EAP patients, all new Q3 patients and 65% of new eligible patients receive Adcetris therapy in Q4, we arrive at a new Q4 Adcetris sales est. of $27.5M (was $13.7M). Ramping faster off of this same 65% incidence penetration rate (was 21%), we increase our 2012 Adcetris sales est. to $109M (was $44M). We had originally ramped more gradually to 65% penetration in 2014."
"Nevertheless, our bearish outlook on the stock remains, based on a number of factors, including small Adcetris-eligible patient populations, limited treatment duration expectations, and an unproven early-stage SGEN Phase I pipeline."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Seattle Genetics click here. For more ratings news on Seattle Genetics click here.
Shares of Seattle Genetics closed at $16.49 yesterday.
Canaccord analyst, George Farmer, said, "Considering our Q3 ests. and informed by our est. annual HL/ALCL incidence rates as well as anecdotal evidence gleaned from ASH ‘11, we see Q4 Adcetris sales falling into a range of $21M-$31M depending on the number of EAP patients continuing therapy into Q4 and on incidence population penetration. Assuming that 80% of the converted Q3 EAP patients, all new Q3 patients and 65% of new eligible patients receive Adcetris therapy in Q4, we arrive at a new Q4 Adcetris sales est. of $27.5M (was $13.7M). Ramping faster off of this same 65% incidence penetration rate (was 21%), we increase our 2012 Adcetris sales est. to $109M (was $44M). We had originally ramped more gradually to 65% penetration in 2014."
"Nevertheless, our bearish outlook on the stock remains, based on a number of factors, including small Adcetris-eligible patient populations, limited treatment duration expectations, and an unproven early-stage SGEN Phase I pipeline."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Seattle Genetics click here. For more ratings news on Seattle Genetics click here.
Shares of Seattle Genetics closed at $16.49 yesterday.
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