Q4 Preview: Navistar (NAV) Investors Will Focus on Industry Supply Issues, Carl Icahn Involvement
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Price: $44.50 --0%
Rating Summary:
9 Buy, 14 Hold, 4 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
9 Buy, 14 Hold, 4 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Shares of Navistar International Corporation (NYSE: NAV) closed down 2.6 percent Monday as the company is expected to announce its fourth-quarter fiscal 2011 results Tuesday, December 20th ahead of the opening bell. The company has a conference call scheduled at 10:00am ET.
The Street sees Navistar reporting quarterly earnings of $3.08 per share on $4.45 billion in sales. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, Navistar reported earnings of $0.68 per share on $3.37 billion in total sales. For the full year 2011, the analyst consensus is at $5.02 per share in earnings on $14.02 billion in total sales. The company’s original guidance calls for earnings of $3.03 to $4.03 per share for the fourth quarter.
Management has already announced it will not be providing future guidance until its analyst day in early February.
14 analyst firms rate Navistar shares at Buy, five rate the stock a Hold and just one says to sell the stock. The average price target on shares of NAV is $54 with a range from $38 to $80.
Analysts at Wells Fargo reaffirmed an Outperform rating and $55 to $57 valuation range on Navistar going into the earnings report. The firm is forecasting earnings of $3.19 per share on $4.47 billion in total sales. Wells Fargo’s bullish stance is based on strong military contribution in the company’s truck and parts business.
An analyst at Wells Fargo said, “Within FQ4, we would be looking for signs of improved commercial vehicle business contribution (i.e., both truck and engine business segments) that could serve as a foundation to offset expected declining military contribution during FY2012.”
Analysts at Deutsche Bank are expecting earnings of $2.95, sales of $4.58 billion. The firm maintains a Buy rating and $54 price target on the stock.
Deutsche Bank believes investors will be focused on the larger industry outlook and the possible implications of Carl Icahn's investment in the company during the conference. “Investors will also be focusing on progress in addressing industry component supply issues, as well as the outlooks for component cost and truck pricing in FY2012. While we expect limited company response on either issue, we expect investors to inquire about the intentions of Carl Icahn and a possible combination with Oshkosh.”
DA Davidson’s estimates are relatively inline with the Street: earnings of $3.09 per share on $4.4 billion in total sales. The firm highlighted gross margin as possibly increasing 2.8 percent year over year to 20.8 percent as class 8 industry orders should approach 300,000 units this year.
The firm believes shares of Navistar should be trading at a much higher multiple; DA Davidson rates the stock a Buy with a $60 price target.
The Street sees Navistar reporting quarterly earnings of $3.08 per share on $4.45 billion in sales. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, Navistar reported earnings of $0.68 per share on $3.37 billion in total sales. For the full year 2011, the analyst consensus is at $5.02 per share in earnings on $14.02 billion in total sales. The company’s original guidance calls for earnings of $3.03 to $4.03 per share for the fourth quarter.
Management has already announced it will not be providing future guidance until its analyst day in early February.
14 analyst firms rate Navistar shares at Buy, five rate the stock a Hold and just one says to sell the stock. The average price target on shares of NAV is $54 with a range from $38 to $80.
Analysts at Wells Fargo reaffirmed an Outperform rating and $55 to $57 valuation range on Navistar going into the earnings report. The firm is forecasting earnings of $3.19 per share on $4.47 billion in total sales. Wells Fargo’s bullish stance is based on strong military contribution in the company’s truck and parts business.
An analyst at Wells Fargo said, “Within FQ4, we would be looking for signs of improved commercial vehicle business contribution (i.e., both truck and engine business segments) that could serve as a foundation to offset expected declining military contribution during FY2012.”
Analysts at Deutsche Bank are expecting earnings of $2.95, sales of $4.58 billion. The firm maintains a Buy rating and $54 price target on the stock.
Deutsche Bank believes investors will be focused on the larger industry outlook and the possible implications of Carl Icahn's investment in the company during the conference. “Investors will also be focusing on progress in addressing industry component supply issues, as well as the outlooks for component cost and truck pricing in FY2012. While we expect limited company response on either issue, we expect investors to inquire about the intentions of Carl Icahn and a possible combination with Oshkosh.”
DA Davidson’s estimates are relatively inline with the Street: earnings of $3.09 per share on $4.4 billion in total sales. The firm highlighted gross margin as possibly increasing 2.8 percent year over year to 20.8 percent as class 8 industry orders should approach 300,000 units this year.
The firm believes shares of Navistar should be trading at a much higher multiple; DA Davidson rates the stock a Buy with a $60 price target.
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