Barclays on U.S. Building Products & Homebuilding: Looking for a Housing Recovery in 2012
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Rating Summary:
27 Buy, 18 Hold, 1 Sell
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Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
27 Buy, 18 Hold, 1 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Barclays on U.S. Building Products & Homebuilding: Looking for a Housing Recovery in 2012
Analyst, Stephen Kim, said, "It has become increasingly apparent to us that the pieces for a housing rebound next year are beginning to fall into place. We are upgrading D.R. Horton (NYSE: DRI) to a OW. In the absence of a government homebuyer incentive, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year. In our opinion, this is the most important trend in the housing industry right now, and we are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the Street. We point out that this stability on the part of non-distressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices."
"With buyers now discerning that distressed homes cannot be compared to
non-distressed homes, concerns about the workout of foreclosures may be
overblown. In addition, we note that a host of economic data is starting to affirm that the housing industry is stabilizing, including job creation, delinquencies, housing starts, homebuyer traffic, and consumer sentiment."
"We see more than just a winter trading rally. As expected, the homebuilding stocks have taken a breather since their big October rally took DHI and TOL to the valuation peaks they achieved during last year's winter trading rally. As a result, we would not be surprised to see some downgrades from analysts who were only looking for a seasonal trade. But we are not making the seasonal trading call; rather, our call is fundamental and based on what we see as growing prospects for a fundamental turn in 2012."
Barclays upgrades DHI from Equalweight to Overweight, PT from $13 to $16 and FY12 EPS estimate from $0.57 to $3.14.
Barclays maintains an OW rating on Lennar (NYSE: LEN), raises PT from $20 to $24, raises FY11 EPS estimate from $0.40 to $0.43 and FY12 from $0.35 to $3.50.
Maintains an EW on Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), raises PT from $22 to $24 and raises FY12 EPS estimate from $0.25 to $0.45.
Maintains an OW on Toll Bros. (NYSE: TOL), raises PT from $21 to $27, raises FY11 EPS estimate from $0.21 to $0.25 and FY12 from $0.24 to $0.42.
Analyst, Stephen Kim, said, "It has become increasingly apparent to us that the pieces for a housing rebound next year are beginning to fall into place. We are upgrading D.R. Horton (NYSE: DRI) to a OW. In the absence of a government homebuyer incentive, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year. In our opinion, this is the most important trend in the housing industry right now, and we are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the Street. We point out that this stability on the part of non-distressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices."
"With buyers now discerning that distressed homes cannot be compared to
non-distressed homes, concerns about the workout of foreclosures may be
overblown. In addition, we note that a host of economic data is starting to affirm that the housing industry is stabilizing, including job creation, delinquencies, housing starts, homebuyer traffic, and consumer sentiment."
"We see more than just a winter trading rally. As expected, the homebuilding stocks have taken a breather since their big October rally took DHI and TOL to the valuation peaks they achieved during last year's winter trading rally. As a result, we would not be surprised to see some downgrades from analysts who were only looking for a seasonal trade. But we are not making the seasonal trading call; rather, our call is fundamental and based on what we see as growing prospects for a fundamental turn in 2012."
Barclays upgrades DHI from Equalweight to Overweight, PT from $13 to $16 and FY12 EPS estimate from $0.57 to $3.14.
Barclays maintains an OW rating on Lennar (NYSE: LEN), raises PT from $20 to $24, raises FY11 EPS estimate from $0.40 to $0.43 and FY12 from $0.35 to $3.50.
Maintains an EW on Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), raises PT from $22 to $24 and raises FY12 EPS estimate from $0.25 to $0.45.
Maintains an OW on Toll Bros. (NYSE: TOL), raises PT from $21 to $27, raises FY11 EPS estimate from $0.21 to $0.25 and FY12 from $0.24 to $0.42.
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