Nomura Securities on American Retailing: Strong Black Friday Saves November (for Most)
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Rating Summary:
4 Buy, 30 Hold, 6 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Nomura Securities on American Retailing: Strong Black Friday Saves November (for Most)
Analyst, Paul Lejuez, said, "Big Picture Takeaways: Black Friday was strong, but the overall November results (including the entire month) were not as strong, reinforcing our belief that the lulls in demand/mall traffic between key shopping periods are becoming more challenging as customers wait for new promotions/events to entice them to buy. While we still have the biggest month of 4Q ahead of us (December sales are ~45-55% of 4Q), we expect a significant lull between now and the key shopping periods at the end of the month."
"The biggest surprises this month were in the department store sector. M
reported strong comps (+4.8% vs. cons +4.1%), driven by strength in
Black Friday results. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was also strong (+5.6% vs. cons +5.1%). On the other end of the spectrum, KSS was a negative standout, with comps down 6.2% vs. cons +2.1%, with weakness across all categories. And JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) was slightly disappointing, down 2.0% vs. cons down 1.4%; mgmt believes Black Friday was hurt (we estimate down msd comps) by their opening at 4am instead of midnight as Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Macy's (NYSE: M) did)."
"Top Picks Still M and LTD: We continue to favor Macy's (NYSE: M) and Limited (NYSE: LTD) because of their existing comp momentum, strong execution, favorable competitive landscapes, and commitment to returning cash to shareholders (M ramping share repo, as evidenced in 3Q, and LTD’s announcement today of another special dividend)."
November Sales Results Highlights: 1) Positive Sales Surprises: M, Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA); 2) Negative Sales Surprises: Gap (NYSE: GPS), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS); 3) What Looks Good: LTD, M; and 4) What to Avoid: GPS, KSS
Analyst, Paul Lejuez, said, "Big Picture Takeaways: Black Friday was strong, but the overall November results (including the entire month) were not as strong, reinforcing our belief that the lulls in demand/mall traffic between key shopping periods are becoming more challenging as customers wait for new promotions/events to entice them to buy. While we still have the biggest month of 4Q ahead of us (December sales are ~45-55% of 4Q), we expect a significant lull between now and the key shopping periods at the end of the month."
"The biggest surprises this month were in the department store sector. M
reported strong comps (+4.8% vs. cons +4.1%), driven by strength in
Black Friday results. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was also strong (+5.6% vs. cons +5.1%). On the other end of the spectrum, KSS was a negative standout, with comps down 6.2% vs. cons +2.1%, with weakness across all categories. And JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) was slightly disappointing, down 2.0% vs. cons down 1.4%; mgmt believes Black Friday was hurt (we estimate down msd comps) by their opening at 4am instead of midnight as Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Macy's (NYSE: M) did)."
"Top Picks Still M and LTD: We continue to favor Macy's (NYSE: M) and Limited (NYSE: LTD) because of their existing comp momentum, strong execution, favorable competitive landscapes, and commitment to returning cash to shareholders (M ramping share repo, as evidenced in 3Q, and LTD’s announcement today of another special dividend)."
November Sales Results Highlights: 1) Positive Sales Surprises: M, Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA); 2) Negative Sales Surprises: Gap (NYSE: GPS), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS); 3) What Looks Good: LTD, M; and 4) What to Avoid: GPS, KSS
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